Atlanta one of the Fastest Growing Cities in America

While the nation’s population grew last year by just 0.1%, many of the largest metropolitan cities are booming. Based on newly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 24/7 Wall St. identified the 10 largest cities with the fastest growing populations.

Looking at GDP growth, many of the local economies were booming before the new residents showed up. Half were in the top third among large metropolitan areas, and three were in the top 15. Charlotte and Austin — both among the top 10 — had the second- and third-highest GDP growth in the U.S. between 2009 and 2010.

As more people moved into these markets, demand for housing increased. According to data provided by Fiserv, while home prices fell in nearly every major metropolitan region, it fell by the smallest margins among those on our list.

1. New Orleans, LA

2. Austin, TX

3. Plano, TX

4. Denver, CO

5. Raleigh, NC

6. Tampa, FL

Atlanta one of the fastest growing cities in America, reported by 24/7 Wall St.

7. Atlanta, GA
> Population 4/10: 1.9%
> Population 7/11: 432,427
> Population 4/10: 420,005
> Average annual city unemployment (2011): 12.1%
> Increase in jobs (2010 to 2011): 28,900 (1.27%)

Though average annual unemployment was extremely high in Atlanta in 2011 at 12.1%, it was actually a significant improvement over 2010 unemployment rate of 12.7%. Additionally, Atlanta’s MSA has experienced significant job growth, adding 28,900 positions between 2010 and 2011. Some 15,400 of these net positions created were in the professional and business services fields. Companies, in these and other fields, that have announced plans to add jobs in the Atlanta area include AT&T, CBS and financial technology firm Q2ebanking. The city has also attracted skilled laborers from abroad, with 5,108 individuals receiving H1B visas to work in Atlanta in 2011.

8. Washington, DC

9. Charlotte, NC

10. El Paso, TX

Source: 24/7 Wall St.

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Atlanta: the 7th Fastest Growing Metro

Metro Atlanta adds 200 people a day to its population, or about one person every seven minutes, making it the seventh-fastest growing metro in America.

Photo Credit: Atlanta Business Chronicle

According to On Numbers analysis of newly released population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, metro Atlanta added 72,909 residents between July 2010 and July 2011 for a total population of 5,359,205.

The Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area adds another person every four minutes and 10 seconds, making it the fastest-growing metropolitan area in America.

Dallas-Fort Worth gained 126,037 residents between July 2010 and July 2011.

Houston ranks second with a daily population gain of 301.6 persons. Rounding out the top five are Los Angeles (up 275.2 persons per day), New York City (up 263.7) and Washington (up 259.7).

The Cleveland area was the biggest loser, suffering a daily decline of 19.9 persons. Next were two Michigan markets: Detroit (down 13.4 persons per day) and Flint (down 8.3 persons).

Click here to see the full analysis.

Source: Atlanta Business Chronicle

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Who’s Moving to Atlanta and Where are They Coming From?

Source: Atlanta Regional Commission Regional Snapshot for February 2012

Most moves are local. This is according to an analysis of data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) that finds more than half of people moving into one of the 20 counties that comprise the Atlanta Regional Commission’s planning area, moved from one of the other 20 counties. It also shows how inter-related the individual counties are within the region. Upcoming Snapshots will show that this is particularly true for work flows and travel patterns.

This Snapshot presents data from the IRS concerning migration patterns from 2000 to 2009, the latest period for which this data is available. The IRS tracks movement between counties in the U.S. based on tax filings – if an address is in a different county from one year to the next, filers and their dependents are considered migrants. There are limitations to these data: The technique captures only those who file returns, so it misses a disproportionate number of seniors, the very low income and new arrivals from different countries who have never filed a U.S. tax return before. Therefore, this analysis explores only domestic migration.

Most Migrants Move to, or From, One of the other 20 Counties

More than half of those moving into one of the 20 counties between 2000 and 2009 came from one of the other 20 counties. In all cases, the most popular “origin” county (where moved from) was adjacent to the “destination” county (where moved to). This shows that the majority of moves are to nearby locales.

While 36 percent of those moving into the 20-county area came from a different state, only 31 percent of those moving out of the Atlanta region went to a different state. This shows that the Atlanta region is a net attractor of people nationwide, especially from the Northeast.

Migrants from New York, Florida and California Choose Atlanta

Table 3 shows net migration between the top 10 states (“top” meaning most net migration into the Atlanta area) and the 20 area counties. Between 2000 and 2009, the top “origin” state – where people are moving from – was New York. More than 60,247 more people moved from New York to the 20-counties than vice versa. This is also true of Florida (+55,500), California (+25,800) and New Jersey (+22,700).

Gwinnett attracted more than 63,200 new residents from different states between 2000 and 2009, including 17,800 from New York alone, tops in the region. Next are Fulton (+61,800) Cobb (+45,800), and DeKalb (+32,500).

The 20-county region sees a net outflow of people to very few states. Colorado leads the way with net outflow of more than 1,300 people between 2000 and 2009. Other states include Maine (-500) Arizona (-475) and Nevada (-350). Washington D.C. attracted a net outflow of 540 former Atlanta residents between 2000 and 2009.

The Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) is the regional planning and intergovernmental coordination agency for the 10-county area including Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry and Rockdale counties, as well as the City of Atlanta. For 60 years, ARC and its predecessor agencies have helped to focus the region’s leadership, attention and resources on key issues of regional consequence.

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State of the Atlanta Region in 2011

The Atlanta Regional Commission recently released its Regional Snapshot for November/December 2011. This special Regional Snapshot tells the story of the Atlanta region through the eyes of the 2010 Census, the most comprehensive and reliable information released about the nation in the last 10 years. The story line is familiar – metro Atlanta is one of the fastest-growing places in the nation, while getting older and more diverse. And the magnitude of change is dramatic. Simply put, the Atlanta region isn’t the same place it was 10 years ago. And it won’t be the same place in 30 years. Change will continue to transform our region.

BE NICE TO THE MILLENNIALS – THEY’LL BE RUNNING THIS PLACE SOON

For decades, demographers and other data followers have been warning of the coming tide of aging Baby Boomers. Well, they have arrived. The next tide are the Millennials, and if history is any guide, they too will demand new things from society, much the same way their parents and grandparents (Boomers) did.

While the Baby Boom generation (those ages 45-64 today) continues to put its stamp on society by adding the most population between 2000-2010, it’s the Millennials (those ages 10-29) who have the largest 2010 population. As of 2010, the Millennials are 1.5 million strong in the 20-county Atlanta region, a population almost 200,000 greater than the Baby Boomers. And they have completely different living preferences than the Boomers. They are much more likely to live in-town, or in areas with a college (as they are of college-age, of course).

BUT THOSE OVER 45 ARE RUNNING THIS PLACE TODAY

The areas with the highest median age tend to be outside the I-285 perimeter, with the exception of the Buckhead and Sandy Springs areas in Fulton, and the Toco Hills/Emory area in DeKalb. The urban core is dominated by the young, as are areas with heavy concentra- tions of Hispanic populations.

While the Millennials are the most populous age cohort in the 20- county Atlanta region, the greatest population gains occurred in the oldest age cohorts – the 45-64 (today known as the Baby Boomers) and the 65 and older groups. Every jurisdiction in the 20-county region had larger percent increases in the older age cohorts than in the younger ones, especially in the outer counties. That doesn’t mean that no jurisdictions are adding kids, however. Forsyth’s under-30 population increased 78 percent, Henry’s increased 67 percent and Paulding’s increased 64 percent.

The Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) is the regional planning and intergovernmental coordination agency for the 10-county area including Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry and Rockdale counties, as well as the City of Atlanta. For 60 years, ARC and its predecessor agencies have helped to focus the region’s leadership, attention and resources on key issues of regional consequence.

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First Quarter Real Estate Stats Metro Atlanta

Clients frequently ask me about the current real estate market conditions in metro Atlanta.  First quarter 2011 has  come and gone, and below are some of the stats in single family home sales from first quarter 2011.

Four of the six counties studied showed an increase or no change in the number of sales from first quarter 2011 over first quarter 2010.  While the number of homes sold has increased, the average sales price decreased in all counties except Fulton County, which showed a remarkable 16% increase in average sales price.

Fulton County Real Estate First Quarter 2011

Andrea Cueny sold this home in Alpharetta during first quarter 2011. Alpharetta experienced a 23% increase in the number of homes sold during first quarter 2011 when compared to first quarter 2010.

Average sales price: $293,755

Fulton County also had increases during Q1 2011, in the area of average sales price. The average home sale price in Fulton County for Q1 2011 was $293,755, which was a 16% increase over Q1 2010 and a 57% increase over Q1 2009.

Number of homes sold: 1,497

This represents a decline in the number of homes sold in Fulton County over the same periods in 2010 and 2009.

Narrowing the focus a bit, the stats for North Fulton (FMLS areas 13 and 14) showed no change in the number of homes sold in Q1 2011 at 479, over Q1 2010. The number of homes sold Q1 2009 was 330, so there is a noteworthy 45% increase in number of homes sold in 2011 during the same time period.

Average sales price in North Fulton during Q1 2011 was $352,569, which reflected only a 2% decline during the same time period in 2010.

Digging a little deeper, we look at the stats for single family home sales in Alpharetta for Q1 2011.    There were 259 sales, which is a slight decline over Q1 2010, but a whopping 23% increase over Q1 2009.

Meanwhile, the average sales price of homes in Alpharetta was $346,661, representing only 0.75% improvement over Q1 2010.

The most expensive home sold in Fulton County during first quarter 2011 was listed at $3,800,000.

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Forsyth County Real Estate First Quarter 2011

Number of homes sold: 500

Average sales price of homes sold: $233,732

Forsyth County saw a 17% increase in the number of homes sold Q1 2011 over Q1 2010 and a 36% increase during the same period in 2009.

The average sale price of single family homes in Forsyth County declined by double digits from Q1 2011 compared to Q1 2010.

The most expensive home sold in Forsyth County during first quarter 2011 was listed at $1,185,000.

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Cobb County Real Estate First Quarter 2011

Number of homes sold: 1,326

This is an 11% increase over first quarter 2010 and a 20% improvement over first quarter 2009.

Average sales price: $193,815

This number from Q1 2011 shows a decline in the average sales price over the same periods in 2010 and 2009, the idea that the number of units sold has increased could point to old inventory clearing out of the way, and buyers getting a good deal on those homes.

A home located in Smyrna sold by Andrea Cueny of Atlanta Fine Homes Sotheby's International Realty during First Quarter 2011.

I sell a lot of homes in Smyrna/Smynings (zip code 30080) and that area of town also saw an increase in the number of homes sold first quarter 2011 vs. first quarter 2010 (20%) and a 36% increase Q1 2011 vs Q1 2009.   The average sales price in Smynings was $234,383, a decrease over Q1 2010 and Q1 2009.

The most expensive home sold in Cobb County during first quarter 2011 was listed at $3,750,000.

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Cherokee County Real Estate First Quarter 2011

Average sales price: $184,717

Number of homes sold: 510

The number of homes sold in Cherokee County during Q1 2011 shows a 3% increase over Q1 2010 and a significant 14% increase over Q1 2009.

The average sales price reflects a 7% decrease over Q1 2010.

The most expensive home sold in Gwinnett County during first quarter 2011 was listed at $813,900.

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Dekalb County Real Estate First Quarter 2011

Average sales price: $159,817

Number of homes sold: 1,049

Both areas of study show a decline for Q1 2011 over the same periods of 2010 and 2009.

The most expensive home sold in Dekalb County during first quarter 2011 was listed at $1,500,000.

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Gwinnett County Real Estate First Quarter 2011

Average sales price: $147,917

Number of homes sold: 1,756

The number of homes sold in Gwinnett County during Q1 2011 shows a 15% increase over Q1 2010 and an 18% increase over Q1 2009.

The average sales price reflects double-digit decreases in percentage over Q1 2010 and Q1 2009.

The most expensive home sold in Gwinnett County during first quarter 2011 was listed at $1,230,000.

Data source: FMLS

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Atlanta Regional Commission Forecasts for Population and Job Growth

TWO COUNTIES WILL BE HOME TO MORE THAN ONE MILLION PEOPLE BY 2040

Of the three million more people expected in the region by 2040, nearly 800,000 of them will call either Fulton or Gwinnett home, accounting for 26 percent of the 20-county region’s forecast population growth, which actually represents a decline from a 32 percent share today.

Both counties will have more than one million people by 2040. Gwinnett is forecast to add almost 413,000 people, tops in the region. Next are Fulton (+373,000), Henry (+239,000) and Forsyth (+202,000). The City of Atlanta is forecast to add more than 250,000 people.

Five counties will more than double their populations between now and 2040, and another five counties will see their populations almost double. Henry County will see the largest percentage increase (124 percent) between now and 2040. Next are Paulding (119 percent), Forsyth (114 percent), Coweta (107 percent) and Newton (106 percent).

Finally, the growth that ARC forecasts for the next 30 years is remarkably similar to the growth the region experienced between 1980 and 2010. While the overall numbers are similar, the type of growth over the next 30 years will look different than the growth of the previous 30 years. Metro Atlanta, and the nation as a whole, is getting older and more diverse.

FULTON TO HAVE MORE THAN ONE MILLION JOBS BY 2040

Fulton County is forecast to add more than 360,000 jobs over the next 30 years, tops in the region. This growth will give Fulton more than one million jobs, or roughly 28 percent of all jobs in the region.

Gwinnett will add 220,000 jobs, ranking second in forecast job growth. Next are Cobb (+154,000) and DeKalb (+135,000). The City of Atlanta will add more than 200,000 jobs.

In percentage terms, Cherokee will lead the region with a 166 percent increase in jobs over the next 30 years. Next are Henry (+141 percent), Barrow (+133 percent) and Forsyth (+124 percent). Note that 10 counties are expected to at least double their job base between now and 2040.

Similar to the trend noted in population, the “Big Four” counties of Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb account for the vast majority of all jobs in the region today, almost 72 percent. By 2040, those four counties’ share of the region’s jobs will drop to 66 percent.

Please click here for the entire article on the growth for population and jobs in metro Atlanta.

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